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Tax Loss - January Effect Portfolio

12/5/2014

 
I am just starting my annual portfolio of about 5 or 6 stocks that have been knocked down during the course of the year, with tax selling adding pressure.  The theory is that small cap stocks that performed poorly through tax loss season will rebound in the first couple of weeks in January - hence the "January Effect". This has been a very profitable trade in most years. So far I have only actually confirmed one stock to purchase - RFIL. I basically look for value type stocks that have been beat down (only micro-caps). Since this is only a two or three week trade (not an investment) I do limited research. I will be posting the other stocks here soon.

***Edit on December 11: I am adding these stocks to the January Effect Portfolio... JVA - LUNA - RFIL - INBK - OBCI

INBK - First Internet Bank is also a long term hold for us. This is my replacement for BOFI as it is much cheaper from the value side.




Will energy break out as the Market tops?

4/19/2014

 
During October of 2007 the stock market started showing signs of weakness as the banking sector started rolling over. But something strange happened - energy and oil kept riding higher and higher. Even as the S&P was off almost 20% and officially in bear territory - oil was going parabolic. Now as is said, history doesn't often repeat but sometimes rhymes, it should be noted that the energy sector has just broke above it's all time highs from previous (the general market did so almost a year ago). And lately the general market has been acting a little strange and the Momo stock darlings have been getting sold hard. It seems a fairly low risk trade at this point would be to go long energy and short the market. I think its low risk because if the market continues higher, energy should too, so the short trade should not hurt too much, and if the market does fall from its graces, and energy does too, that would be offset. The risk is that the market moves higher and energy declines. I don't see it happening that way. So I will be setting up that trade early next week. I will be adding to ESTE (my favorite cheap Bakken play) and perhaps finding some others.
Disclosure: Long ESTE (may buy or sell at any time)

Market topping - rolling over...

4/13/2012

 
We have been waiting for a market correction to bring some buying opportunities.  I sold a good portion of ESTE - some over $25/share - and will add to my remaining position if we get into the teens.  Also I would like to purchse BOFI around $15/$16.  And although there has been some insider buying in my favorite "tiny" stock - REPR - there has also been alot of stock showing up at the offer.  REPR may well get below 20 cents on a market pullback.  I will be adding if and when that happens.  So I guess that is my current wish list.  I will add more ideas soon.

Disclosure: Long ESTE - REPR

Sold most of the January Effect portfolio for a gain...

1/7/2012

 
While I did not get near the gains I could have if I held out a little longer, the portfolio did well.  However, the fact that the market was up about 6% or so during that period obviously helped greatly.  These are the gains from Dec 19th when  I mentioned the portfolio stocks to their high during the period:
CPE - 21% gain
LMLP - 56% gain
GPIC - 2% gain
MEA - 10.5% gain
PDO - 20% gain
CRWN - 17.5% gain
I sold out of all positions (unfortunately not for nearly the possible gains) but still hold some GPIC as that one has not moved.  I will most likely sell out completely in the next week or so.  Three other stocks worth mentioning that I bought as part of the portfolio but did not get around to reporting on were TGC, DYSL and BSQR.  TGC and DYSL have done outstanding, but I lost a few percent on BSQR (my only loser in this portfolio).  I will do this again next year with much more invested (along with a hedge by shorting the market in equal weight).
Disclosure:  Long GPIC (for now)

January effect portfolio - a two to three week trade...

12/19/2011

 
I am just starting a portfolio of about 5 or 6 stocks that have been knocked down during the course of the year, with tax selling adding pressure.  The theory is that small cap stocks that performed poorly through tax loss season will rebound in the first couple of weeks in January - hence the "January Effect".  So far the stocks I am looking to acquire for this two or three week trade are: CPE LMLP GPIC MEA PDO CRWN and possibly a couple others.   I will buy some this week and then double the position next week.  My intention is to sell during the second or third week in January.
Disclosure: Will be long most stocks mentioned.

Shorting Penny Stocks...

8/27/2011

 
There is a recent promotion which tells of an "amazing opportunity" in the oil and gas business.  The promotion tells you to "buy this stock now in the $2 to $3 range and make $36,000 off only 2000 shares.  A ten bagger for sure!!!"  The email and mailer brochure tells how this unknown oil and gas player is sticking it to the big players because they were able to pick up huge reserves for nothing.  It mentions the hot buzzword "bakken" about a hundred times (because that is the hottest phrase in oil and gas at present).  Then when you get to the disclaimer of this glowing report it tells you that a third party is paying $125,000 for the promotion.  The stock being promoted is LOGL - Legend oil and gas.  The stock has started perking up again on heavy volume since this new promote started about 2 weeks ago.  As it loses steam, the stock will more than likely dump (I have never seen a paid promote succeed long term).  I am starting a short position in LOGL.  I expect this promote will end exactly the same as the 1000's of others over the years...
BTW - if you want a real junior explorer that is teaming up with Brigham Exploration in the Bakken, look at my favorite ESTE Earthstone Energy.  Their last well, which they have a 4% stake, just hit for 3,900 barrels a day initial production.
Disclosure: Long ESTE - Short LOGL

ESTE - Earthstone puts out nice numbers...

8/13/2011

 
Earthstone Energy does 39 cents a share for the quarter.  At $13/share the forward P/E ratio is now about 8 with growth in production on the way.  Ray Singleton - the CEO - said new capital expenditures should double this year, meaning a lot more well interests and a lot more production.  Of Earthstone's partners, Brigham Exploration is really starting to drill in the Banks area.   There are four additional wells that are coming online.  ESTE has a 5.5% to 2% interest in these new wells.
****Dislosure: Long ESTE - we may buy more or sell at anytime.

BOFI hits another great quarter - Stock soars...

8/11/2011

 
BOFI - parent company of Bankofinternet.com did indeed come through at 50 cents as the CEO hinted during an investor conference last week.  Growth in their mortgage origination business and deposits lead the highlights of the quarter.  I picked up a few shares during the market blood bath in the past few days and sold a few into todays earnings spike. The stock was up nearly 20% at one point.  This company is an exciting franchise and still - by far - my number one pick.   
****Disclosure: Long stock - (may buy or sell at anytime)

Short List -

8/6/2011

 
While I like shorting the overinflated promotion stocks - usually otcbb and pink - this week you could have pretty much shot the fish in the barrel.  I was short LOGL - Legend oil and gas -  and covered for a small gain.  I will be looking for shares of VXX if it stays in the 30 plus range.  VXX decays badly and the Vix does not stay high forever.  It could be an interesting week since the US has been downgraded.
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    Paul Saad

    Senior Manager, Paul Saad and Associates, LLC

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